In the latest Pulse Asia poll conducted ahead of the May 9 elections, presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. maintained a large lead, but Vice President Leni Robredo’s rating has increased significantly across all regions and income classes covered by the poll.
Voter support for Marcos Jr., the late dictator’s son and namesake, fell to 56 percent from 60 percent in previous Pulse Asia polls in January and February, while Robredo’s support increased to 24 percent from 15 percent the previous month.
Pulse The Ulat ng Bayan face-to-face survey of 2,400 people in Asia was conducted between March 17 and 21, when official campaigning was in full swing. During this time, at least two presidential debates were held, both of which Marcos Jr. skipped.
Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso (8 percent), Sen. Manny Pacquiao (6 percent), and Sen. Panfilo Lacson (5 percent) trailed Marcos Jr. and Robredo (2 percent). Other presidential candidates polled included Faisal Mangondato (1%), former presidential spokesperson Ernie Abella (0.1%), cardiologist Jose Montemayor Jr. (0.05%), labor leader Leody de Guzman (0.02%), and Norberto Gonzales (0%).
Sara Duterte, President Duterte’s daughter, remained the top choice for vice president, with 56% support, while Senate President Vicente Sotto III came in second with 20%.
Between February and March, Marcos Jr.’s approval rating fell in all areas and socioeconomic classes, with Mindanao experiencing the greatest drop (to 62 percent from 68 percent) and Class E respondents experiencing the greatest drop (to 52 percent from 58 percent).
On the other hand, Robredo’s 24 percent is the highest she has received in any Pulse Asia pre-election poll. The Vice President’s previous high was 20% in the survey conducted on December 1-6, 2021. Her percentages dropped to 16 percent in the Jan. 19-24 poll and 15 percent in the Feb. 18-23 poll.
In the most recent poll, her voting preference increased from 16 percent to 30 percent in Luzon outside of Metro Manila; to 28 percent from 19 percent in the Visayas; to 14 percent from 5 percent in Mindanao; to 30 percent from 17 percent among Class C; to 24 percent from 14 percent among Class D; and to 22 percent from 13 percent among Class E.
Only Socioeconomic Classes C, D, and E were represented in the most recent survey. According to Ana Maria Tabunda of Pulse Asia, the exclusion of high-income Classes A and B has no effect on the results because the proportion of the group is less than 1%.
“They also live in gated subdivisions where interviewers are not permitted.” “They’re also more likely to refuse to be interviewed,” she wrote in a text message.
According to Pulse Asia’s socioeconomic demographic estimates, Class ABC accounts for only 8% of the population. Class D accounts for 78% of the population, while Class E accounts for 14%. (See page A6 for survey results for senatorial candidates.)
Robredo’s spokesperson, Barry Gutierrez, said the Vice President’s 9-point increase in the latest poll reflected growing support for her presidential candidacy.
“What we are witnessing now is a tide turning,” Gutierrez said in a statement.
He pointed out that the survey results showed Robredo with a 13-point swing while Marcos Jr.’s rating dropped by 4 percentage points.
“The survey results are beginning to reflect what we have been seeing on the ground all along: massive crowds, fierce passion, and unwavering commitment of Filipinos from all walks of life rallying behind Leni Robredo’s presidential bid,” he said.
Gutierrez added that it also demonstrated Robredo’s “momentum,” which he predicted would “only further intensify and accelerate” in the run-up to the May 9 general election.
“We will win this with the help of our countrymen who are still doing the work, knocking on doors and talking to voters,” he added.
While acknowledging Marcos Jr.’s continued lead, the survey front spokesperson, runner’s lawyer Vic Rodriguez, warned supporters and campaigners not to become complacent with less than a month until the May 9 election.
“We implore our supporters, volunteers, and campaigners not to become complacent and to remain (focused) on achieving our common goal of 70% presidential preference,” Rodriguez said in a statement on Wednesday.
“We will not rest until the 70% preference poll polls position is achieved until every vote is counted and the Filipino people’s aspirations become a reality,” Rodriguez said.
In response to the latest poll, political scientist Aries Arugay of the Department of Political Science at the University of the Philippines Diliman said on Wednesday that Robredo’s crowd-drawing pink rallies and house-to-house campaigns “are now being translated into voter preferences.”
However, Arugay stated that Robredo’s efforts would have to be stepped up as the campaign season neared its end.
Among other things, he said, the Vice President should consider deploying up to 100,000 campaign volunteers nationwide—ten times the number of volunteers who joined her grand house-to-house tour last April 2.
“(The fight) must begin at the barangay level,” Arugay said, noting that research from other countries has shown that house-to-house campaigns are the most effective.
This also implies that presidential candidates Domagoso and Lacson must keep “chipping away at Marcos’ lead” and not drop out of the race, he added.
“At this point in time, given the numbers,” Arugay said, “withdrawal is not sound.” “You don’t know if their base is the same as Robredo’s. Instead, you might end up increasing Marcos’ base.”
He predicted that future polls would show a larger increase in Robredo’s popularity, especially since the March 17-21 survey did not include the P203-billion estate tax issue against the Marcoses, as well as the Robredo campaign team’s intensifying fieldwork.
On the estate tax, Arugay stated that Robredo, Domagoso, and Lacson all stood to benefit from it, but it was critical that Domagoso, not Robredo, raised the issue.
“After all, this is still negative campaigning,” Arugay pointed out. “It’s important that it didn’t come from her because those who do this are still looked down upon in Filipino culture.”###
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